Money. Big money. Money to buy ads, hire operatives, punish enemies and make sure members of his caucus know who butters their bread.

Small business, state and local government and transit agencies could get big help—if a pending $908 billion deal actually passes.

But the data has nuances.

On the day the speaker's longtime confidant and others pleaded innocent to federal bribery charges, House GOP Leader Durkin says he has more votes to become speaker than the embattled chamber chief.